Research Paper
Game Theory, Psychology, and AI Simulation
Seamus Waldron
Independent Researcher
November 2025
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of The Traitors, the social deduction television format that has expanded to over 35 international territories since its 2021 Dutch premiere. We examine the format through four complementary lenses: game-theoretic analysis of information asymmetry and voting dynamics; psychological profiling of player archetypes and audience engagement; cross-cultural comparison of international adaptations; and computational modelling using large language models.
Our primary contribution is the development of an AI simulation framework capable of generating authentic social deduction gameplay, including a novel emotion engine that models the cognitive cost of sustained deception. We demonstrate that AI agents exhibit emergent "tells" under deception strain, mirroring human behavioural patterns documented in the literature. The paper concludes with practical strategic guidance derived from both theoretical analysis and simulation results.
Prefer a summary?
Read the Executive Summary →The genesis of social deduction games from Mafia to Among Us. Marc Pos and De Muiters. The Dutch premiere and global expansion to 35+ countries. Awards and cultural impact. Analysis of format adaptations and their success factors.
Read full chapter →Complete mechanical documentation: the daily loop, core mechanics (murder, banishment, shields), advanced mechanics (daggers, dungeon, death match), recruitment dynamics, and endgame variations across territories.
Read full chapter →Formal model of information states across player roles. Signal and noise in behavioural analysis. Information cascades and bandwagon dynamics. The paradox of perfect play. Mathematical models for suspicion scoring and Bayesian updating.
Read full chapter →Electoral game theory applied to banishment. Coalition formation and stability analysis. Traitor and Faithful voting strategies under uncertainty. Tie-breaking dynamics. Endgame voting mathematics and expected value calculations.
Read full chapter →Player typology based on behavioural analysis: Faithful archetypes (Detective, Social Butterfly, Quiet Observer, Vocal Accuser, Loyalist) and Traitor archetypes (Method Actor, Puppet Master, Chaos Agent, Sleeper, Betrayer). Case studies and counter-strategies.
Read full chapter →Cross-cultural adaptation analysis. Netherlands (the original), UK phenomenon, US hybrid approach, Australia's distinct flavour. European variations (France, Germany, Spain, Norway, Hungary). Cultural factors influencing gameplay patterns.
Read full chapter →The host as game master and dramatic character. Claudia Winkleman analysis: tone, catchphrases, information control. Alan Cumming analysis: theatrical approach. Other host archetypes across territories. Host dialogue patterns and their effects on gameplay.
Read full chapter →Why viewers are captivated by deception narratives. The parasocial detective phenomenon. Dramatic irony and tension mechanics. Moral complexity appeal. Binge vs. broadcast psychology. The rewatch factor and community engagement.
Read full chapter →Technical implementation of the AI Traitors simulation. V5 RAG pipeline architecture. Knowledge representation with RAPTOR summarisation hierarchy. Game state management and context windowing. Query processing and prompt engineering patterns.
Read full chapter →Modelling lying, secrets, and emotional authenticity. Six-axis emotional state modelling. The deception engine: displayed vs. internal emotion, masking strain mechanics. Secret management and information leakage. Deception indicators and observer analysis.
Read full chapter →Running complete game simulations with AI agents. Game orchestration and phase progression. Mission simulation with sabotage mechanics. Round Table dialogue generation. Night phase simulation. The "Edit Moment" detection system for identifying dramatic highlights.
Read full chapter →Practical strategic guidance with theoretical underpinnings. Faithful strategy by game phase (early, mid, late, endgame). Traitor strategy with murder target prioritisation algorithms. Recruited Traitor challenges. Endgame optimisation with expected value calculations.
Read full chapter →Mission mechanics, purposes, and strategic implications. Mission taxonomy across territories. Quality metrics for mission design. Sabotage detection modelling. Shield distribution analysis. Designing missions for specific dramatic outcomes.
Read full chapter →Production interventions and adaptive strategy. Existing destabilisation techniques (recruitment, shields, daggers, murder in plain sight). How destabilisation changes game dynamics. Novel proposed techniques (The Mole, The Defector, The Switch).
Read full chapter →Modelling human-like memory for social deduction AI. Memory encoding with emotional salience weighting. Ebbinghaus-inspired decay curves. Clarity markers ([CLEAR], [FUZZY], [VAGUE]). Flashbulb memories for emotionally significant events. Memory profile variations.
Read full chapter →Comparing language models for memory-aware dialogue generation. Evaluation methodology and test scenario design. Response time performance benchmarks. Memory marker compliance rates. Emotional tone modulation accuracy. Recommendations for production deployment.
Read full chapter →Waldron, S. (2025). The Traitors: A Computational Analysis of Social Deduction. Independent research paper. Available at: traitorbot.com
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